A Chinese correspondent was writing editorials about the Climate Change Conference in Paris and at that moment the correspondent called and asked, “Why do most influential media lead with the agreement that was reached in Paris?” I said that was of course because it was the defining moment for the sustainable development in the globe, which would be proven constantly by the upcoming history.
Since the beginning of this year, I have attended some academic conferences including the UNESCO’s International Science Conference concerning climate change in Paris in July, and most of these conferences are related to the Climate Change Conference in Paris. The outcome of this conference is the unexpected dream-come-true. If the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) because of its scientific research on climate change, the same Nobel Peace Prize should be awarded to the United Nations, France and political leaders of China, the United States and other countries, because all of them have made a great contribution to the Climate Change Conference in Paris. The success of the Climate Change Conference in Paris has indicated the three changes in the field of global environmental and climate governance.
First, the era of fossil fuels will gradually end and the era of fuel transformation and low carbon economy starts in the whole world. The condition of climate change and the establishment of fuel transformation need to be approved of both scientifically and politically. From the scientific perspective, we need to prove whether climate change really exists and why it is connected with the economic activities of human beings. From the political perspective, we need to prove whether the whole world should launch a new anti-climate-change social-economic campaign to realize the fuel revolution. On the one hand, the scientific confirmation started from the work accomplished by IPCC in the last 20 years. IPCC was established in 1988 and it published its first assessment report (AR1) in 1990. Its fourth report (AR4) proved that the assessed likelihood of the global warming was 90%, and because of this achievement the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to IPCC in 2007. On the other hand, the political confirmation originated from the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which was signed by around 200 countries, but the development of this convention was not smooth at all. This time, the Climate Change Conference in Paris has indicated that the scientific results and the political results have finally shown consistency. The Climate Change Conference in Paris has sent the message that, for certain, the whole world is entering a new era – an era of fuel transformation with less use of fossil fuels and more use of renewable energy resources, and all walks of life, including the government, enterprises, social organizations and ordinary people, should adapt to this new trend: 2016 will be the beginning of the new energy era in the world.
The second change we can see is that the style of the governance in the world has shown a difference: from the style of the mind-my-own-business zero-sum game to the compromises within the bottom line. Just as a saying goes, it is extremely difficult to let the 200 monkeys who are each alive and kicking march together. To deal with the climate change and to transform the energy use pattern would affect the various interests of different countries. In the previous negotiations, each of the 200 signatories had its own advocacy, but this time in the Climate Change Conference in Paris an unprecedented success has been achieved. Each negotiator has abandoned the rat-race attitude and started compromising, which, to a large extent, can be traced back to the advocacy of a flexible system in the global governance campaign, that is, the top-down model of emission reduction by means of coercion should be abandoned, and the bottom-up voluntary model of emission reduction should be adopted. I believe, the Climate Change Conference in Paris will become a prototype and a new starting point for the development of global governance structure and governance ability, and it will definitely provide the experience for reference to solve some similar multi-lateral problems.
An additional change is that China’s role in the global governance of climate change becomes different – from passive to active, showing leadership. How will China deal with climate change? It used to be a question for China. Chinese economists who emphasize economic growth normally place growth above resources and environment and they think that it is beyond China’s current ability to participate in the governance of global climate change; Also there are conspiracy theorists arguing that climate change is a plot designed by the developed countries to trap the developing countries on the ground that they have already developed and they do not want China to develop to surpass them. Nonetheless, in recent years, Chinese leaders are more inclined to accept the idea that to participate in the global climate change governance is not something required by others, instead it is something we ought to do. To deal with the climate change and to transform the energy use pattern do not contradict with the solving of the domestic problem of resources and environment; they are crucial components of the new economic normality. These Chinese leaders’ vision has surpassed that of many domestic scholars. Since 2014, Chinese leaders have launched summit meetings between China and the U.S., between China and France, between China and Germany, and between China and Britain. They mentioned that the emission of carbon dioxide would reach the peak in 2030, and they proposed measuring and checking the number every five years. All these gestures have laid a crucial foundation for the Climate Change Conference in Paris, and they also represent that China, as a rising major power, is assuming its responsibility and playing its role as a leader in the international affairs.
(The author is a professor and the director of the Think Tank of Sustainable Development and New-Style Urbanization at Tongji University. This article first appeared in Xinmin Wanbao Newspaper on Dec. 19th, 2015.)